Will RJ Barrett Ever Be An All-Star?
We shall examine his career and try to project his potential ceiling, improvements that are and are not achievable, and the competition he faces in reaching this stated goal. Making him the third pick in the draft was a very good choice based on his previous accomplishments and his youth. That is not an issue here. We will simply try to predict the probability of RJ Barrett becoming a future NBA all-star.
RJ’s dad played professionally and his Godfather is HOFer, Steve Nash. If there is such a thing as coming from a place of basketball privilege, Barrett has had that advantage. At age 11, “He said, Dad, I want to make the Hall of Fame, I want to be an NBA champion, I want to be on the NBA All-Star team.'”https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/rj-rowan-barrett-father-son-dynamic-1.4649826 RJ is not lacking in high aspirations, and with good reason.
Prior to the 2018-19 NCAA season, RJ Brrett was considered a likely #1 pick in the NBA draft. He had led Team Canada in the FIBA U19 tournament in 2017. “Barrett’s shining moment came in the semifinals against the United States, when he had 38 points on 12-of-24 shooting, 13 rebounds, and five assists, giving Team USA its first defeat in international competition in six years.
…. Barrett shot 23.8 percent from 3 on three attempts per game” in the tournament. https://www.theringer.com/2017/7/12/16077798/rj-barrett-fiba-u19-greatest-canadian-basketball-prospect-fbe374453d92
The following are some excerpts from various pre-draft scouting reports. They have been chosen based on how accurately they predicted the play we have seen in RJ’s three years with the Knicks.
“He has strong play-making skills with the ability to create off the dribble and pass. He is also a plus-rebounder for his position. *Despite having what appear to be smooth shooting mechanics, Barrett’s percentages plummeted in college. He shot just 30.8 percent from three and 66.5 percent from the free throw line.https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/wizards/2019-nba-draft-prospect-profile-rj-barrett
“Outlook: Incoming Duke freshman and head of the top recruiting class … Has played well in every high-profile event he’s played in throughout his career … Finished with 20 points, nine rebounds, six assists and five steals at the 2018 Nike Hoop Summit … Scored 26 points in the McDonald’s All-American Game while shooting 10-16 … Named to the Jordan Brand Classic … Led Canada to win the gold medal in the 2017 U19 Basketball World Cup averaging 21.6 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game. Including 38 points, 13 rebounds, and five assists over the US … Played in the 2017 Nike Hoop Summit … As a senior, led Montverde to a 37-0 record … Named MVP of the GEICO High School Nationals scoring 25 points and grabbing 15 rebounds to win the championship game. As a junior, led Montverde to finish runner up at the 2017 Dick’s Nationals, scoring 25 points in the championship game … MVP of the 2017 Basketball Without Borders … MVP of the 2016 Jordan Brand Classic International Game with 22 points, eight rebounds, and three assists in 25 minutes … While UPLAY Canada struggled through the Nike EYBL (3-13 overall, 2-6 when Barrett played), Barrett thrived statistically in the two sessions he played in …”Evan Tomes 6/26/18 https://www.nbadraft.net/players/rj-barrett/
“May have peaked to some degree in high school as he was clearly the top kid in his class as a senior in HS … Outside shot lacks great form and confidence seems to waver … Good athlete, fast in transition and can explode in space but doesn’t necessarily play above the rim or have great explosiveness in half court situations … Needs to improve his ball handling to become a more efficient half court player … Left hand dominant, looks awkward dribbling or finishing with his right … Almost always ends up going back to his left hand … Isn’t aggressive off the ball defensively, doesn’t rotate hard … Could look to take advantage of his physical tools more defensively and create more turnovers … Poor ball control, handle is high and loose, struggles to make passes off the dribble … Poor shooter off the dribble and has a relatively slow and inconsistent release … Needs time to get it off cleanly … Not accurate with his passes, sloppy ball placement … Can get too caught up in playing hero ball and get tunnel vision trying to create and not looking for teammates at the end of games … Fearless approach can end up being overconfidence … Seems to have an alpha personality, but may need to learn to adjust his game some and defer more at the next level … Sort of a jack of all trades, master of none type …William Desautelle 4/4/19 https://www.nbadraft.net/players/rj-barrett/
This is an in depth evaluation which does not see RJ as a top 3 draft pick. https://medium.com/sportsraid/rj-barrett-not-elite-nba-draft-prospect-2019-basketball-duke-rankings-canada-overrated-bust-cf106ca4900
Barrett scores a ton of points but it takes him a lot of shots to get there. He often forces the issue, driving the ball into traffic and putting up wild shot and layup attempts. Hasn’t shot the ball well at Duke, hitting about 30% from downtown and under 70% from the FT line.https://nbadraftroom.com/r-j-barrett-nba-draft-scouting-report/
Much has been made of RJ Barrett’s confidence, determination and work ethic. These themes will be repeated in most sketches of this precocious teen. However, keeping in mind his privileged background, the holes in his game are rather surprising.
First, his failure to develop an adequate off-hand. Without any real info, it is possible that the right handed RJ was drilled so thoroughly to use his left hand that his dominant right hand was neglected. In any case, it is a major weakness for a player whose strength is going to the hole.
Second, why weren’t those many hours in the gym spent on developing a consistent J? How was all that time spent if it weren’t on his handle and his stroke? Players with a determination to be great will spend extra time on their weaknesses. This year, we are seeing a marked improvement in Barrett’s three and his FT %. RJ is still going almost exclusively to his left. When he goes R off a screen, he immediately returns to his L.
It must be remembered that while RJ is physically mature for his age, he is still a youngster. He is very positive in responding to questions from the media regarding his and the team’s progress. RJ’s statement that he has improved every year could have been a conditioned response, or he may really have believed that to be the case. He predicted the Knicks would ‘Shock the world’ this year. But one has to wonder how much of his confidence is overconfidence and how much is mere bravado. Barrett was prominently mentioned as a pawn in the Donovan Mitchell talks. He followed by signing a less than max extension. If he had been suffering from overconfidence, the trade rumors and contract terms must have been wake up calls. A little humility will go a long way with motivating RJ to achieve his dreams.
To become an all-star, there are a lot of obstacles RJ must overcome, none bigger than the overblown hype regarding his year to year improvement.
Year two was actually a better year than year three. Yes, it parallels the teams success and failure, but there is no real improvement. RJ is off to a very good start this year in exhibition games against teams that are given little or no chance in finishing top ten. His, and the Knicks, first true test comes opening night in Memphis, where Dillon Brooks will probably guard RJ.
As the Knick team improves, for instance the addition of Jalen Brunson, a return of the 2020-21 Julius Randle, the continued improvement of Mitchell Robinson, or the break out of a player like Quentin Grimes, RJ’s former stature as the number two player will be diminished. Certainly he is no more than the co-number two right now with Julius. Barrett is an effective 3 point shooter, but he has not earned the D designation to make him a 3&D wing.
Another challenge Barrett faces in making the all-star team is the talent that has been coming into the Eastern Conference. The top three rooks from last year all look like future stars. LBJ is gone, but Dejounte Murray, Donovan Mitchell, James Harden and Jalen Brunson are here now. Tyrese Maxey, Darius Garland and Tyler Herro had terrific seasons last year. This year, the West had the three of the first five picks, but Paolo BAnchero, Jaden Ivey and Benedict Mathurin will get 30+ mpg as starters on weak teams. Gordon Hayward, Joe Harris, Kristaps Porzingis, and Khris Middleton are healthy again. Throw in Siakam, Lowry, Randle, Oladipo and other former or near all-stars and you can see how well RJ must perform to distinguish himself from the pack.
Year after year, new talent is entering the league, and second and third year players are coming into prominence. Does RJ Barrett have the untapped talent to become an all-star, or is he already near his ceiling?