As the 2022 – 2023 NBA season was about to begin, the New York Nicks looked like a team that would not win 40 games. The favorites were Milwaukee, Boston, Philadelphia and Brooklyn. Cleveland pulled off the Donovan Mitchell trade. With the return of a healthy Victor Oladipo, Miami had four former all-stars in their lineup. Atlanta had added Dejounte Murray’s length and ‘D’ to team with Trae Young, John Collins, DeAndre Hunter and Clint Capela. The return of Lonzo Ball was a reminder of how formidable the Bulls had been until he was injured. Toronto had the ever improving Pascal Siakam, ROY Scottie Barnes, and newbie all-star Fred Van Vleet. It looked like the New York Knicks would be fighting for the final play-in spot with the Bradley Beal’s Washington Wizards and LeMelo Ball’s Charlotte Hornets
Today, Tuesday, January 10, 2023, marks the halfway point of the Knicks season. Other conference teams have completed between 39 (Sixers) and 43 (pistons) games, according to CBS Sports. If the season ended right now, New york would still be a play-in team, but 7th, not 10th. The surprising Indiana Pacers, a team counted out in October, are in sixth, one game ahead of the Knicks. Guess with whom New York opens the second half of the season. No peeking now!
Since the loss to Dallas on December 3rd, 18 games ago, New York has played superbly. The recent 5 game losing streak appears to have been an aberration. Their style of play in those five losses was a lapse into their earlier style of play. They ignored playing defense in the rush to get hold of the ball and score. Barrett and Randle went for combined scores of 60 and 73 points in back to back losses. The team that had been holding opponents to fewer than 100 points, except in an OT win, momentarily forgot they what they had done to win eight straight prior to the string of defeats.
There are many factors involved in the New York Knicks surprising turn around. These various aspects have produced a team that is a winner. A few of the components were already in place, but not functioning at their best. In fact their performances were far from optimal. Mitchell Robinson, Julius Randle, Quentin Grimes and Immanuel Quickley were already in place. Only RJ Barrett was playing near his ceiling.
The first element to be added that brought about a huge shift in a Knick transformation from losers to winners was the signing of Jalen Brunson. The Knicks finally had a team leader who is a superior player. Jalen should be an all-star this year. His addition to the roster bumped up the team’s talent level. Brunson was their desperately needed PG. Jalen had the ability to break down defenses and get into the lane. Averaging 21.6 points and 6.5 assists are measurables that are exceptional. Jalen Brunson hit the ground running with the Knicks and has only gotten better as the season progresses. Game 4 he scored 27 points and had 13 assists against the Charlotte Hornets, a 2 point win.
However, it is the intangibles that Jalen provides that has massaged this group of players into a Knick team that has become a winner. Jalen has the mental toughness of RJ Barrett and the scoring ability of Julius Randle. Brunson has the unselfishness and IQ of Mark Jackson, but has yet to show Mark’s court vision and passing ability. These qualities are very attractive to team mates and coerce them to adjust to his style of play. This is leadership.
The biggest knock on Jalen Brunson’s game is his defense. He is short and not very quick. With the ball, Jalen’s change of pace and direction keeps defenders off balance. They must react to him. Defense is reactive and that puts the slower man at a distinct disadvantage. But even on D Brunson is a leader. He hustles, takes charges and his IQ allows him disrupt moves and passes. The Knick defense has been the key to their winning streaks and vice versa.
What to make of Jules?Perhaps he is much more talented than he believes himself to be. The career Julius Randle has been a black hole, capable scorer, solid rebounder who was disinterested in playing D. With quick feet, a solid handle and superior strength, there wasn’t a double, not even a triple team that could force him to pass the rock. His TOs and offensive fouls frustrated coaches, fans and fellow players. On the day Fizdale was fired Morris Sr. and Taj called a meeting because of Randle and Barrett’s selfish play. On defense, Julius looked like the ball boy on a layup line. To Randle, his individual stats were more important than wins, whether he recognized it or not.
In a November 18 post, and not for the first time, I called for Randle to “Shoot the three Jules, just shoot it”. Although he has an excellent stroke, Julius’ three was underutilized. His preference for top of the key drives and spins in the lane created very negative offense. The ball was stuck and there was no movement of men or ball. This move made it much too easy for teams to double and triple Randle. Once his back was turned it was Steal City. In addition, the offense had no rhythm and team mates were often caught flat footed when Jules did pass. The double team left shooters wide open. Randle averaged 6 dimes per game in his all-star season, almost double his first 6 years in the league.
RJ Barrett is huge question mark. His physical strengths and weaknesses are now apparent. The NBA talent gap has erased the talent advantage of the precocious 16 year old. The former #3 lottery pick is now the fourth or fifth best player on the Knicks. His extended minutes and volumeFGAs exaggerate his true value to the team. Will Barrett be able and willing to adjust his game to be a solid rotation player, or has his early stardom permanently distorted his view of his game?
The Knicks other young guns, none of whom were lottery picks, are solid players who excel in certain areas and are limited in others. The bench is reliable as the second line of success.
The first 41 games have seen a significant change in the Knicks style of play. Their recent success has hinged on their defense and ball movement, and more equitable shot distribution.There is a new found chemistry in the Knicks play since the beginning of December, with a brief lapse when a hot offensive surge actually dissolved their defense and led to five consecutive losses.
The following analysis is based on the hope that this chemistry prevails and key injuries are few and of short durations.
Still superior:
Milwaukee Bucks; Boston Celtics: Brooklyn Nets; Philadelphia Sixers; Cleveland Cavaliers;
Comparable:
Miami Heat; Atlanta Hawks; Indiana Pacers; Chicago Bulls; Toronto Raptors.
Thirty of the Knicks final 41 games are against Eastern Conference foes.The team that won five of their last six games is capable of winning 30 of their last 41. In October, 6th place seemed an implausible dream. With Jalen Brunson’s leadership and talent, Jules evolving game, IQ’s rebounding and defense supplementing his scoring, Grimes all-around excellence and Mitch dominating inside, the Knicks look to be more capable than any of their competitors to capture the 6th spot in the playoffs. (Then a heavy dose of DRose will be added to the mix.)
First half standings: https://www.cbssports.com/nba/standings/