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RJ Barrett: year 4 Projection

This far in his very young career, RJ Barrett has been the victim of NYC hype.

RJ Barrett’s stats

Let’s begin with the oft repeated propaganda that the kid made a jump in his second year The stat line below tells a different story. RJ’s point production increased with his FGAs. His eFG% decreased. All the other stats remained similar, except for a 1 rebound pg improvement.

Another misleading statement is that Barrett is a very good defender. This is more of an ‘eye test’ than something that can be proven by stats. It is true that RJ has played well against Jimmy Butler and Kawahi Leonard, two all-stars who use their physical strength to great advantage. Barrett has been taken the challenge to use his strength and battle these players effectively. However, his lack of lateral quickness and constant focus have hurt the Knicks’ D. The physical shortcomings can’t be helped, but the lack of awareness leads to too many blow byes and late rotations.

There are many positives in RJ Barrett’s favor and deserving of praise. First and foremost is his character and attitude. There is no doubt that he will work toward being the best possible player he can be. We have a good idea of Barrett’s determ9nation and his physical strengths and limitations. If he has a high BB IQ, he will adjust his game to maximize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses.

An example is his improved three point shooting. The drop off in year three had more to do with taking more tightly contested attempts and shot selection than poor shooting technique. We can expect RJ to shoot 40% going forward. An improved handle will allow RJ to slash rather than loop to the rim, increasing his finish %. An older and wiser Barrett will pass the rock rather than take a bad shot that is blocked. Smarter play will increase his offensive stats across the board, including his assists.

A more effective RJ Barrett will not necessarily make him an all-star because a stronger Knicks roster will dim his individual accomplishments. RJ may no longer be the number 2 option. His FGAs will most certainly decline, even if the Knicks are able to get rid of Jules.

However, never becoming an all-star does not make RJ Barrett any less of a player than the Knicks drafted at #3. Only if he can become a lock down defender will Barrett gain all-star recognition. As RJ incorporates minor improvements in his game, he will continue to be a positive force and strong contributor to a rising Knicks team. Neither Barrett nor his fans should be upset if that is as far as his talents take him.